What is the state of the nation-states of the world today? Are we about to observe the end of a liberal world order? If so, what are the most critical threats we face in the contemporary world?

By 'a liberal world order' one probably means the post-World war11 US led system, lasting well into the cold War, whereby pluralist or democratic values were said to be buttressed by institutions that ensured a 'rule of law' and 'market-oriented capitalism' with the individual in the driver's seat. But it wasn't world-wide or universal, but mainly confined to the West, though it seemed the West wanted to create the rest of the world in its own image.

The other protagonist was the Soviet-led Socialist States, mostly in the East, with their own ideas about societal governance based on communal collectivization. The conflict was not just about power but also over ideas. Though militarily, or in raw power-terms, it could deter the west, in values and ideas it was discomfited. The result was an implosion in the East and the collapse of the Soviet empire.

Out of the peaceful ashes of the cold War, emerged China, rapidly rising and embracing what may be called 'Capitalism with Chinese characteristics' (to alter somewhat the usual expression of 'Socialism with a Chinese characteristics). This State-led capitalism was not an attractive alternative model for most countries. But China now possessed the abundant resources this model created, which is helping it buy influence. The propagation of this influence was given a fillip by the perceived disengagement of what Hubert Vedrine had called the 'hyper-power', .ie, the US from the world under Donald Trump', together with its seeming disinclination to separate friends from foes.

The result has been the American Dream pitted against 'Zhung Guomeng' or China-Dream, a weakened set of global institutions unable to provide direction, empowered but malignant non-state actors and State systems back-sliding into populism, nationalism and different types of supremacism. The actual impact on the global political and economic landscape has been the United States seeking to constrain an increasingly powerful China, which, however modestly describes it as 'peaceful development'.

So, the geopolitical 'face-off' between China and the US is the new normal for the present times, as well as the foreseeable future. This is likely to continue. Both President Xi Jinping of China and President Donald Trump also have the need to look at their domestic constituencies. This is particularly true of Mr Trump, who is currently confronting impeachment proceedings, and if these do not dislodge him from office, which they may not, the upcoming elections in 2020 may. It is noteworthy though increasingly bot the American mainstream parties, the Republicans and the Democrats, are agreed on the perception of China as America's main rival.

Europe's star, at least for now, seems to be on the decline. Right now it is caught-up in the complexities, indeed some might say, the absurdities of BREXIT, the proposed de-linkage of the United Kingdom from Europe. Militarily Europe is no longer as powerful as the main global actors like the US and China. Of course, it has long enjoyed US nuclear umbrella within the structure of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), but under the present circumstances the US going into a nuclear war, or even any war, to support any ally appears remote. The French President Mr Emmanuel Macron has recently observed that Europe is suffering from 'brain-death' (not quite 'brain-dead', though some could well argue it is!), and that even if Mr Trump were to disappear from the scene, the gulf between the two allies, America and Europe, is likely to continue to widen. Not so long ago, one would have thought that Russia had ceased to exist as a mover and shaker in the global scene. But we are witnessing an aggressive reassertion of Russian power under President Vladimir Putin. Once the stronghold of 'soft-power' and 'human rights', the emergence of populism is considerably altering those perceptions in the rest of the world.

The non-western world is also changing, not necessarily for the better. India's much heralded economic growth seems to be under severe strain. The commitment of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party to to 'Hindutva' values is threatening to widen a communal divide exacerbated by fissiparous tendencies in Jammu and Kashmir as well as in the north East. Furthermore, India's decision not to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) exposed the non-competitive nature of its economy. Brazil's leadership seems to be taking the nation along America's path. Coups by power groups within the system had seemed to be a thing of the past, but Bolivia proved that wrong.

Of course, the drifting of the countries in a chaotic sea without order is an unsustainable situation. Hopefully, fear of horrendous consequence will avert a nuclear war, but 'new arms' in the age of Artificial Intelligence (AI), lowering the nuclear threshold, may make a new type of conventional war-fighting possible with similar destructive results. Indeed, there are those who are already persuaded, but with insufficient logic, that we are already in a 'post-nuclear world', with 'AI' providing us with deadly, more precise, and cheaper alternatives.

In this economically interdependent world, the new global conflict will assume a different form. For instance, China's 'Belt and Road Initiative', the infrastructural megaproject spread over 60 countries, is being countered by the US-led 'Blue Dot Network', a voluntary scheme to certify BRI projects for transparency and sustainability.

Hopefully the conflict between the non-liberals with single-minded commitment to market, and authoritarian capitalism may create in the future a vision for societies that is more social-democratic, and solidarist. We might yet create social systems akin to 'walking on two legs': one leg devoted to free market, and the other to spreading the social safety -net wide enough to catch those that are left behind. This seems like a worthwhile universal aspiration, but right now its achievement appears to lie well beyond the rim of the saucer.

Dr Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury is Principal Research Fellow at ISAS, National University of Singapore, former Foreign Advisor and President of Cosmos Foundation Bangladesh