As Donald Trump enters his second term in January, three major issues will likely dominate his foreign policy: Ukraine, Gaza, and climate breakdown.

Based on his recent remarks, it is possible that he will attempt to quickly resolve the Ukraine conflict in a manner that benefits Putin. Netanyahu may also be given permission to end the ongoing wars in Gaza and Lebanon by any means necessary, while despite overwhelming evidence, the US will maintain a rigid stance that climate change is some kind of a hoax.

That said, while these are all reasonable assumptions on how Trump may behave - of course, they do not account for his tendency towards unpredictability and the erratic approach to foreign affairs that he displayed in his previous administration.

First, take Ukraine as an example, where defence corporations have made billions of dollars over the past two and a half years. For them, an early end to the war would be bad for business which is, after all, what they are about. A violent stalemate over several years would be a more profitable option so the Trump team may well come under considerable pressure from the arms lobby, no doubt including inducements, to see the war extended.

Gaza is different and Trump has made it clear to Netanyahu that he wants an early end to the war, preferably before his inauguration. This is terrible news for the Palestinians. Netanyahu's government will be able to intensify the war not least by clearing the whole of the northern third of the Gaza Strip of the entire Palestinian population and making the land available for Israeli settlers to colonise.

Meanwhile, the Palestinians of the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem will be subjected to constant harassment and violence, the aim being to "encourage" them to move east across the river to Jordan and beyond, enabling yet more Israeli settlers to move in. Before long, Gaza and quite probably the occupied West Bank, will simply be annexed formally into Israel.

Currently, there are just over seven million Jews in Israel, but rather more non-Jews, with the latter having a higher birth rate. To the extreme religious parties in the Netanyahu coalition that is entirely unacceptable, and a large-scale exodus of Palestinians will be what is wanted, with this made far more likely by Trump's victory this week.

That does ignore two outcomes. One is that Israel is now seen as a pariah state across the majority world, no longer the victim and now the aggressor. David and Goliath have swapped places.

Secondly, Israel will never again be secure while its current posture persists. The last year has resulted in the deep radicalisation of many hundreds of thousands of angry young Palestinians who will have precious little to lose in whatever actions they choose to take in the coming years and decades. Hamas and Islamic Jihad may have been pushed back for now, but they and new movements will in time flourish.

Climate breakdown

Then there is the third foreign policy issue that is not being talked about enough: the global climate. Consider just the past week. First, catastrophic floods hit eastern Spain, houses and bridges were swept away, cars were tossed around like toys and at least 214 people were killed. For years, climate scientists have warned of increased severity and frequency of critical weather events and the Valencia flood was just the latest of many.

Then, less than a week later, Trump won the race to the White House while denying climate change was even happening. The whole climate change thing is a myth according to him, and so instead he aims to increase oil and gas production.

Yet just one day after his election, the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service reported that 2024 is likely to be the first year ever recorded with global temperatures 1.5C (2.7F) above the 1850-1900 average. Beyond this point there have been repeated warnings of the world moving into dangerous and uncertain times with an increasing risk of irreversible climate breakdowns.

Whether Trump has the impact that many fear may depend on factors beyond his control. In the US, individual states and their legislators have considerable scope for going their own way, and many are already doing this.

Meanwhile, rapid developments in energy technologies mean that electricity generated from renewable resources is cheaper, and sometimes much cheaper, than that generated from fossil carbon, whether oil, gas or coal. The building of wind farms in Texas, that quintessential oil state, is a good indicator of this. The world's fossil carbon corporations may be trying to make a killing while they can, but they are still sunset industries in the wider scheme of things.

Trumpism will be a huge short-term obstacle to a decarbonising world but he and those around him are examples of fossilised thinking. In such circumstances, what is critical is that campaigners and activists right across the world hugely increase their commitment to countering the impact of this disastrous election.

From openDemocracy