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Photo: Collected
The mood in the country is understandably sombre, it is still somewhat suspicious, we feel fragile, we feel unsure. Civil unrest and its associated bearishness are never good for an economy, having both direct and indirect, immediate to long term, as well as pernicious effects, and we shouldn't expect the case to be any different in Bangladesh from the unspeakable, unprecedented and entirely unsettling events of July 2024 - particularly its second half. Additionally this time, for good measure, we have measures imposed by the authorities themselves that are directly hurting the government's fondly crafted narrative of 'Digital Bangladesh', in the form of the limits imposed on internet connectivity.
The internet blackout, including the full blackout from August 18-23, hit almost all businesses and industries. It shut down e-commerce and f-commerce, the Facebook-based businesses popular in the country. These sectors are estimated to be losing at least $5m in revenue per day. Even after it was returned gradually - mobile internet was returned this week after the area-wise return of broadband on the 23rd. Social media came last. Several users have complained about having really slow speed while browsing the internet since the restoration of the internet across the country amidst the protests that snowballed into something far beyond whatever anyone could have imagined.
Zunaid Ahmed Palak, state minister for information and communication technology, told the media at the start of the week that the government was aware of the financial losses due to the blackout. In the latest update, on Thursday, August 1, it was said by the Internet Service Providers Association of Bangladesh (ISPAB) that internet speed in the country might improve later that night. There has been no confirmation of this yet.
Economists predict that the impact of the widespread unrest and internet blackouts will be much greater even than the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic. Aside from the shutdown of almost all industries, there were economic losses due to vandalism and arson attacks, including on the country's very popular metro rail system in Dhaka, and the transport network in general. Movement of short-distance trains resumed on Thursday, 14 days after passenger train services were suspended on July 18. By one estimate, the economy bled out about $1 billion a day for a stretch of five brutal days from July 16-21 that saw deaths and destruction on a scale never before seen in independent Bangladesh. The business community has put the losses over the same period at more than $1.2 billion, which may sound somewhat conservative.
Of course, the government-imposed curfew remains in place, although gradually relaxed. Everyday, the country looks forward to any new circulars on the times during which it will be relaxed the next day, and plan our day accordingly - an apt reminder that things are not normal. Internationally, there is much emphasis on an independent investigation on what exactly transpired to result in such a steep price for the court ruling that eventually came on July 21. It is something the entire nation must try and understand, before it can truly move on.
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