Sir Winston Churchill once said of the Soviet Union that "it is a riddle wrapped in mystery inside an enigma". In contemporary global politics it would not be totally erroneous to view Daw Aung San Suu Kyi of Myanmar in these terms. Of the Soviet Union, Churchill had observed that perhaps there was a key, and that key was 'national interest'. Similarly, in the case of Aung San Suuu Kyi, might there indeed be a key? If that key were genuine national interest, today, instead of the deep disappointment that the international community suffers in her case, there would be more resonance of understanding. Alas, with regard to her it appears to be, not national interest as all would have liked to see, but the narrow, selfish motive to cling on to power, come what may. Her sad subservience to the actions of the Tatmadaw , or the Myanmar military , including her turning of a Nelson's blind eye to its unspeakable human rights violations of the Rohingyas in the Rakhine State, which is a case in point, is a chilling evidence of the veracity of the assertion that the aspiration to power, like power itself, can be horribly corrupting, including morally.

Myanmar is now poised for elections, next year, in 2020. But it is still a nation very much in the clutches of the military junta, though less formally so than in the past. There does exist a façade of democratic rule with Aung San Suu Kyi at the head of a seemingly civilian government. However, even if elections are due within a year's time, the upcoming polls do not herald prospects of any welcome changes. The law as of now guarantees a quarter of the seats in Parliament to the military. Since any amendments to the Constitution would require the approval of 75 per cent of the legislature, this in fact gives the military the powers to veto any changes that it may not like. It can be safely assumed that they would not like any alterations that would erode their power in any substantive way. As if this were not enough key Ministries in the government are reserved for the Tatmadaw. Therefore, there are structural impediments to any return to real democracy in Myanmar.

However, there seems to be emerging hopefuls who wish to effect small changes, believing that eventually the spirit for change may turn this phenomenon into a torrent for change. Frankly, that seems to be too tall an order at this point in time. Nonetheless, there is a burgeoning, though very small as yet, a desire for this. One such person with such inclinations may be Mr Ko Ko Gyi, who is Chairman of the newly founded People's party. He belongs to what is known as the "88 Generation", a group that took the military junta on in 1988. He had once championed Aung San Suu Kyi's and her National League for Democracy (NLD), but only to be ignored in later years. Left to himself, he would favour an inclusive polity in Myanmar that would embrace the views of some minorities that are opposed to the country's Bamar majority. He has publicly expressed a favourable predilection for a formula akin to the Northern Ireland Peace Process, which embraced the armed resistance group, Sinn Fein. But Mr KO Ko Gyi, has spoken of other armed resistance, he is not on record of any positive position on the suffering Rohingyas, or the Rakhine Muslim minority. Indeed, he seems to be conscious of the Army's "red lines".

This nascent differing view is already facing challenge by other new political weltanchschauung. An example is Mr Soe Maung, a former votary of the Tatmadaw backed Union Solidarity and Development Party. He has recently formed a platform called the Democratic Party of National politics and enjoys the support of many retired generals. In past military governments he had served as Advocate General, and Minister. He is also said to be close to the former junta leader, Senior General Than Shwe, though he appears uncomfortable with any mention of that association. He takes the view that the Tatmadaw is broadly representative of the common Myanmarese people, and civilian governments would require this reality to be taken into account. He does not seem to have any regrets for the diminishing political influence of the 134 ethnic minority groups in Myanmar. In other words, he takes a majoritarian, and hence politically rewarding, view as against that motivated by any sense of justice and equity.

There has been some speculation in the media that the current military chief, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing could become the President after the 2020 elections. He has been holding the chief's position since 2011. He would have normally retired in 2016 when he turned 60 as all officers do, but he gave himself an extension, or rather forced the NLD to give him one. Such an election will not be easy and will take a lot of manoevering, but with military support, within and outside the literature, it is not beyond the realm of possibility. Currently he faces charges for trial before the International Criminal Court in the Hague, and such a position may actually provide him an immunity of sorts. His election might push Myanmar back once again into the position of an international 'pariah state'. But Myanmar has been in that situation before. Indeed, as the analyst Ralph Pettman had indicated several years ago, Myanmar had once formed a category of States by itself, when it opted out of the international system altogether. At least for now, though, the election of Senior General Min Aung Hlaing as President appears to be well beyond the rim of the saucer.

In a major research conducted at the United States Institute for Peace two analysts, Mary Callahan with Myo Zaw Oo, predicted that during the election next year there is a possibility that communal, religious and nationalist issues will take the centre stage and there would be the possibility of tensions boiling over. Their view was that "Myanmar's complex history and politics make it unlikely that the 2020 elections will prove to be any kind of resolution to what have been decades-old sources of trauma, suffering and conflict". Unfortunately, that is a sad conclusion that few will contend.

Dr Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury is Principal Research Fellow at ISAS, National University of Singapore, former Foreign Advisor and President of Cosmos Foundation Bangladesh