Bangladesh's response to the novel Coronavirus, or COVID-19, continued to plod along this week, even as the resources at its disposal to fight the outbreak received a boost amid the lockdown imposed by the authorities, which has now been extended till the middle of April to ensure 'social distancing'.

The authorities did announce at the start of the week however, that they were planning to expand a laboratory network in and outside Dhaka, primarily at divisional cities, by establishing necessary lab infrastructures and providing training to lab technicians, doctors and nurses for easy access to COVID-19 tests for people suspected of having pre-test symptoms.

The Ministry of Health, along with the Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) and Institute of Epidemiology, Disease Control and Research (IEDCR), is said to be moving for faster implementation of the target of lab expansion at Chittagong, Rangpur, Rajshahi, Sylhet, Khulna, Mymensingh and Barisal. The move comes in light of the arrival of 40,000 COVID-19 test kits from China, donated by Jack Ma's Alibaba Foundation and the Chinese government on March 26.

Director (MIS) Dr. Md. Habibur Rahman of DGHS told the media in a video conference-based press briefing two days later that increasing laboratory strength was the main target now. He noted that creating access to tests for COVID-19 had been undergoing implementation, primarily in Chittagong, Rangpur, Rajshahi and Mymensingh. "In phases, we will bring all divisional cities under lab facilities."

"We are responsive," Rahman said during the media briefing, dismissing reports of the number of tests being too low in reply to a question about the lower number of tests being aimed at concealing information about the real situation.

However, throughout the week, the number of tests done on a daily basis witnessed only a slight spike over previous weeks, as reported by IEDCR, rising to an average of over 100 per day when it needs to rise into the thousands (see editorial). On March 26, the total number of tests done stood at 920. As of April 1, this had risen to 1759.

On that date, another person was said to have died from the virus in Bangladesh, taking the total deaths from Covid-19 in the country to six. Besides, three more people had been diagnosed with the disease, raising the total number of coronavirus cases in the country to 54.

Health Minister Zahid Maleque disclosed the figures at an online press briefing.

"In the last 24 hours, 157 samples were collected and tested. Of these, three were found positive...one more person died in the last 24 hours. The total number of deaths from the coronavirus in the country is now six," he said. The minister also said one more patient has recovered from the disease, raising the total number of people who have already made recovery to 26.

He claimed that the country's medical facilities are capable enough to handle the crisis. "Every day, we're improving our healthcare system. Ventilators are being added to different hospitals. In addition, we're preparing more hospitals to treat coronavirus patients," he said.

Zahid Maleque further said the PCR testing facility is being expanded to several medical colleges outside Dhaka. He urged people to stay indoors to prevent the spread of coronavirus. "Stay home, stay safe."

Meanwhile, experts told our sister newsagency UNB that a big shock lies ahead for the Bangladesh economy, as the inflow of remittances, the lifeline for many rural families, is likely to shrink significantly in the coming months as a fallout of the pandemic.

They noted that almost all the major destinations of Bangladeshi migrant workers from where they send money back home are grappling hard with epidemics, halting economic activity with the closure of most business establishments and shops. Many migrant workers have even returned home.

Inflow of remittances had been robust going into the crisis. According to Bangladesh Bank data, the country received $2.58 billion remittance from Saudi Arabia in the first eight months of the current fiscal, against $3.11 billion in the entire 2018-19 fiscal.

Bangladesh also got $1.74 billion from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), $996.11 million from Kuwait, $814.05m from Oman and $739.38m from Qatar, in the first eight months of the current fiscal. Besides, the country received $ 1.53 billion in remittances from the USA, $987.28 million from the UK, $869.70m from Malaysia, $547.16m from Italy, $312.41m from Singapore and $37.54 million from Germany during the same period, central bank data showed.

But most of these countries are now witnessing economic slowdowns due to the coronavirus shutdown.

"Remittances have been declining since January following the coronavirus outbreak. As the UK, the USA, Italy, Spain and some Middle East countries are affected by the coronavirus, remittances may fall further in the coming months," said noted economist Dr AB Mirza Azizul Islam.

Besides, he said, many Bangladeshis will lose their jobs and they will face difficulties to get new jobs amid the impending economic meltdown. "It's also uncertain whether the migrant workers who came back home will get a chance to join their jobs again amid travel bans by different countries."

Former lead economist at the World Bank Dr Zahid Hussain said many Bangladeshis in different countries run small businesses but they now cannot open their hotels, beauty parlours and other business establishments and shops due to the coronavirus-induced shutdowns, affecting their incomes.

Besides, many companies closed their factories and stopped production, hampering the income of the migrant workers. "So, we fear the remittance inflow will fall in the days to come which may hit the rural economy hard," he added.

The economic fallout

Indeed, the global economy could shrink by almost one percent this year-0.9 percent-due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and world output could contract further if imposed restrictions on economic activities extend to the third quarter of the year and if fiscal responses fail to support income and consumer spending, according to a new briefing issued by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs this week.

Growing restrictions on the movement of people and lockdowns in Europe and North America are hitting the service sector hard, particularly industries that involve physical interactions such as retail trade, leisure and hospitality, recreation and transportation services. Collectively, they account for more than a quarter of all jobs in these economies. As businesses lose revenue, unemployment is likely to increase sharply, transforming a supply-side shock to a wider demand-side shock for the economy.

The severity of the economic impact-whether a moderate or deep recession-will largely depend on the duration of restrictions on the movement of people and economic activities in major economies and on the actual size and efficacy of fiscal responses to the crisis. According to the report, a well-designed fiscal stimulus package, prioritizing health spending to contain the spread of the virus and providing income support to households most affected by the pandemic would help to minimize the likelihood of a deep economic recession.

"Urgent and bold policy measures are needed, not only to contain the pandemic and save lives, but also to protect the most vulnerable in our societies from economic ruin and to sustain economic growth and financial stability," stressed Liu Zhenmin, Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs.

The economic impact is spreading around the world.

The adverse effects of prolonged restrictions on economic activities in developed economies will soon spill over to developing countries via trade and investment channels. A sharp decline in consumer spending in the European Union and the United States will reduce imports of consumer goods from developing countries. In addition, global manufacturing production could contract significantly, amid the possibility of extended disruptions to global supply chains.

In the worst-case scenario, global GDP could shrink by 0.9 per cent in 2020 instead of growing a projected 2.5 percent. World output could contract further if imposed restrictions on economic activities extend to the third quarter of the year and if fiscal responses fail to support income and consumer spending, the report warns. By comparison, the world economy contracted by 1.7 percent during the global financial crisis in 2009.

Developing countries, particularly those dependent on tourism and commodity exports, face heightened economic risks. The sudden stop in tourist arrivals will hurt the tourism sector in small island developing States (SIDS) that employs millions of low-skilled workers. And the decline in commodity-related revenues and a reversal of capital flows are increasing the likelihood of debt distress for many commodity-dependent economies. Governments may be forced to curtail public expenditure at a time when they need to ramp up spending to contain the pandemic and support consumption and investment.

The pandemic is disproportionately hurting millions of lower-wage workers in service sectors, who often lack labour protections and work in close physical proximity to others. Absent adequate income support, many will fall into poverty, even in most developed economies, worsening already high levels of income inequality. The effect of school closures could make the educational divide more pronounced, with possible long-term consequences.

The report finds that as the COVID-19 pandemic worsens, deep-seated economic anxiety-fuelled by slower growth and higher inequality-is increasing. Even in many high-income countries, a significant proportion of the population do not have enough financial wealth to live beyond the national poverty line for three months. In hard-hit Italy and Spain, for instance, an estimated 27 percent and 40 percent of the population, respectively, do not have enough savings to allow themselves not to work for more than three months.

Elliott Harris, UN Chief Economist and Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development said, "While we need to prioritize the health response to contain the spread of the virus at all cost, we must not lose sight of how it is affecting the most vulnerable population and what that means for sustainable development. Our goal is to ensure a resilient recovery from the crisis and put us back on track towards sustainable development."

Death march continues

With refrigerated morgue trucks parked on New York City's streets to collect the surging number of dead, public health officials projected that the coronavirus could ultimately kill more than 100,000 people across the U.S. Some states that have become hot spots warn they're running low on ventilators, while two cruise ships pleaded for Florida to allow them to dock to carry off the sick and dead.

The number of U.S. deaths could range from 100,000 to 240,000 even if Americans continue to stay home and limit contact with others, experts predicted at a media briefing with President Donald Trump. But they said they hope the figure won't soar that high if everyone does their part to prevent the virus from spreading.

"I want every American to be prepared for the hard days that lie ahead," said Trump, who has extended social distancing guidelines to April 30. "We're going to go through a very tough two weeks."

Elsewhere around the world, hard-hit Italy reported that the infection rate appears to be leveling off and new cases could start declining, but that the crisis is far from over. Spain struggled to fend off the collapse of its hospital system. Vladimir Putin's Russia moved to crack down on quarantine violations and "fake news" about the outbreak. And China edged closer to normal as stores in the epicenter city of Wuhan began reopening.

Worldwide, nearly 860,000 people have been infected and over 42,000 have died, according to a tally kept by Johns Hopkins University. Italy and Spain accounted for half the deaths, while the U.S. had over 185,000 infections and about 3,900 dead. That's above the official toll of about 3,300 in China, where the virus began.

New York was the deadliest hotspot in the United States, with about 1,550 deaths statewide, most of them in New York City, which braced for things to get much worse in the coming weeks.

At Elmhurst Hospital in Queens, critically ill COVID-19 patients are filling intensive care units, surgical floors and operating rooms and waiting in the emergency room for beds to become available, said Dr. Eric Wei of the city's hospital agency.

"I've practiced emergency medicine for a long time, and I'm seeing things that I never could have imagined in terms of the things this virus can do to all ages, including people who were previously healthy," he said.

A 1,000-bed emergency hospital set up at the mammoth Javits Convention Center began taking non-coronavirus patients to help relieve the city's overwhelmed health system. A Navy hospital ship with 1,000 beds was expected to accept patients soon.

The indoor tennis center that is the site of the U.S. Open tournament is being turned into a hospital as well. The city worked to bring in 250 out-of-town ambulances and 500 paramedics to deal with a crush of emergency calls. The fire commissioner said ambulances are responding to double their normal daily total of 3,000 calls to 911, the emergency hotline, according to the Associated Press.

New York authorities also sought more volunteer health care professionals and hoped to have them on board by Thursday. Nearly 80,000 former nurses, doctors and others are said to be stepping forward.

Around the city, workers in protective gear have been seen putting bodies of victims into refrigerated trailers. At some hospitals, like Lenox Hill in Manhattan, the trucks are parked on the streets, along sidewalks and in front of apartments. Cars and buses passed by as corpses were loaded by forklift at Brooklyn Hospital Center. People captured some of the scenes by cellphone.

Meanwhile, two ships carrying passengers and crew from an ill-fated South American cruise are urging Florida officials to let them dock. Dozens aboard have reported flu-like symptoms, and four people have died. Two of the deaths have been blamed on COVID-19, and nine people have tested positive.

Figures on deaths and infections around the world are supplied by government health authorities and compiled by Johns Hopkins. But the numbers are regarded with skepticism by public health experts because of different counting practices, a lack of testing in places, the numerous mild cases that have been missed, and perhaps government efforts to downplay the severity of the crisis.

For example, in Italy, where the death toll was put at about 12,400, the country's emergency coordinator, Domenico Arcuri, acknowledged that officials don't have a handle on how many people are dying at home or in nursing homes.

Still, there was a glimmer of hope there: Dr. Silvio Brusaferro, head of Italy's institutes of health, said that three weeks into a nationwide lockdown, the hardest-hit country in Europe is seeing the rate of new infections level off.

"The curve suggests we are at the plateau," he said. But "arriving at the plateau doesn't mean we have conquered the peak and we're done. It means now we should start to see the decline if we continue to place maximum attention on what we do every day."