The fall of the Awami League-led regime that had ruled over Bangladesh for 15-and-a-half years, on August 5th, coupled with the unprecedented nature of its exit, turned it into a seismic event in the geopolitical landscape of South Asia. Before long, it also became clear to anyone with a strategic bend of mind that far-reaching consequences had been set in motion by the disorderly exit of the then-prime minister, Sheikh Hasina Wazed, only last year christened as 'Asia's Iron Lady' by no less a publication than The Economist, the influential London-based newspaper.

To put it bluntly: no one, at least no one in public, not even in policy circles or among spies, had 'gamed out' the scenario playing itself out on the ground. Sheikh Hasina, the exceptionally proud daughter of the man acknowledged as the founder, if not the father of the nation. And yet here she was, given just 45 minutes by the Army to leave the very same country, or be confronted with thousands, even hundreds of thousands, of angry protesters streaming towards her official residence from two directions, and by then practically baying for her blood.

Pretty much everyone knows by now how things unfolded inside the red-bricked walls of Ganobhaban, from that point onwards. Long story short, Hasina and her sister Sheikh Rehana, only freshly arrived from London the day before, were provided with safe passage to India, whereupon the two sisters, as far as we can tell, have been practically confined to a safehouse thought to be in Ghaziabad, a suburb of Delhi that is a stronghold of the Indian Air Force.

In probably the first concrete sign of the diplomatic googly confronting regional stakeholders, it would be more than 24 hours before the Indian government - usually so sure-footed over the last 16 years on matters pertaining to Bangladesh - yet it would be more than 24 hours before the Indian government would present its first public assessment of the situation, and even then, it would be difficult for them to shake off the impression of being genuinely rattled by what was happening.

Making a statement in the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of the Indian parliament, Foreign Minister Subramanyam Jaishankar, looking more beleaguered than anything else, said: "Our understanding is that after a meeting with leaders of the security establishment, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina apparently made the decision to resign. At very short notice, she requested approval to come for the moment to India. We simultaneously received a request for flight clearance from Bangladesh authorities. She arrived yesterday evening in Delhi."

Jaishankar's use of the phrase "at very short notice" would raise eyebrows among most people, as was his decision to leave in the "for the moment". Together, they both suggested a certain reluctance almost, on the part of the Indian government, to readily host one who has arguably been their number one friend not only in the region, but perhaps even of all time - to the point of being accused by her critics of subverting her own country's interests to those of India's.

To say that they (Indian establishment) were shell shocked would probably be an understatement. With the entire structure of the AL practically vanishing before its eyes, India was clearly left without any footing in Bangladesh. In the days to come, rather than switch on and try to be proactive in resisting this wave that was clearly set in motion against them, India through its rabidly nationalist, or rather Hindutva (Hindu nationalist) media led to even more distance opening up between the two countries.

This is where a definitive gap opened up between Delhi and Dhaka. In football transfer terms, Dhaka was a free agent again. And that is where Washington spotted the opportunity and made its move - and just like that, the Indians were out, and the Americans were in.

Was it a case of simply diplomatic killer instinct? Not all that much, if Michael Kugelman, who heads up the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre in Washington, is right. He sees the US adopting a back-to-the-basics approach.

"We're seeing an emphasis on economic and development cooperation," says Kugelman, who has emerged as the leading US scholar on Bangladesh and its neighbours in recent times. "This is a long standing and productive aspect of the relationship that's been overlooked in recent years amid all the tensions over democracy and elections."

Kugelman is listing off the trade benefits US is a top trade partner of Bangladesh, a prime source of FDI, and a major donor on issues ranging from public health to Rohingya refugees.

"It appears, at a moment when Bangladesh is facing a range of challenges on many fronts, that the US is keen to signal that it wants to help Bangladesh move forward," Kugelman said

He is keen however to add that other key components of the relationship, like strategic cooperation and indeed human rights, are "not being jettisoned". Just that they will likely take a back seat in the immediate term.

Diplomatic niceties

Having the figure of Professor Muhammad Yunus to deal with as chief adviser undoubtedly helped the US establishment make its mind up. The easy camaraderie he enjoys with US interlocutors was on display for all to see on Sunday (Sep. 15), as he sought support from the United States to rebuild Bangladesh from the ruins of authoritarianism, crony capitalism, and unbridled corruption.

That will necessitate carrying out vital and vast reforms, as well as bringing back stolen assets. The CA stressed that it is a very important time for Bangladesh and a significant moment in its history.

The 2006 Nobel Peace Prize Laureate described the challenges facing the interim government to the visiting US delegation, saying his administration has moved quickly to "reset, reform, and restart" the economy, initiate reforms in financial sectors, and fix institutions such as the judiciary and police.

The Chief Adviser sought the assistance when a high-powered US delegation met him at the state guesthouse Jamuna. The US delegation affirmed their dedication to fostering inclusive economic growth, institution building, and development to benefit the people of Bangladesh.

"As Bangladesh looks to chart a more equitable and inclusive future, the US stands ready to support those efforts," said the US side, after a meeting held at state guesthouse Jamuna.

The Chief Adviser spoke about the student-led revolution, which has ushered in a new era of hope in Bangladesh, according to the Chief Adviser's press wing.

From the US side, Assistant Secretary for International Finance at the US Department of the Treasury Brent Neiman, US Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu, Assistant US Trade Representative Brendan Lynch, Deputy Assistant Administrator Anjali Kaur and Director of the US Treasury Department Jerrod Mason represented the US in the meeting.

Principal Coordinator on SDGs Affairs Lamiya Morshed, Chief Adviser's Special Envoy on International Affairs Lutfey Siddiqi, Foreign Secretary Md Jashim Uddin and Secretary of the Economic Relations Division Md Shahriar Kader Siddiky attended the meeting representing Bangladesh, among others.

The Chief Adviser described an outline of the reform initiatives undertaken by the Interim Government, explaining that six commissions were set up barely weeks after his government took over in an effort to prevent vote rigging, reform the judiciary, police, civil administration, the country's anti-graft agency, and amend the constitution.

Prof Yunus said his government was committed to getting back the stolen assets siphoned off by corrupt individuals linked with the previous autocratic regime.

"We were in an ocean of corruption," the Chief Adviser said, while describing the challenges the government faces to tackle graft.

US delegation leader Brent Nieman praised Professor Yunus's leadership and said Washington would be happy to support his reform agenda. US officials have said they were eager to offer technical and financial assistance for reforms being carried out by the Interim Government.

During the hour-long talks, financial and economic reforms, investment, labour issues, the Rohingya crisis, and the Chief Adviser's upcoming visit to New York for the UN General Assembly were also discussed.

Dr. Ahsan H Mansur, governor of Bangladesh Bank, held a meeting at the central bank with Brent Neiman.

The meeting discussed how to improve the macroeconomy. In this, various issues including inflation, money laundering, and growth came up. The governor informed about the various steps taken by the central bank because of the overall situation to protect the stability of the country's economy.

The governor was assured that the United States would provide all kinds of support to reform the financial sector.

A Washington-Dhaka Consensus?

The World Bank is committed to increasing lending to Bangladesh in this fiscal year to help the reform agenda of the Interim Government, its Country Director Abdoulaye Seck said on Tuesday.

Seck informed that the World Bank can mobilise about $2 billion in new financing in the current fiscal, to support critical reforms, flood response, better air quality and health, according to a press release.

Seck spoke about the new assistance when he met the chief adviser, Professor Muhammad Yunus, at State Guest House Jamuna in Dhaka.

"We would like to support you as fast as possible and as much as possible," Seck said, adding that the bank would support the critical financial needs of the country.

He said that in addition to the new commitments, the multilateral lender would repurpose about an extra one billion dollars from its existing programmes in consultation with the government in response to the calls for support by the Chief Adviser to all development partners of Bangladesh.

Seck said the extra lending would raise the amount of soft loans and grants the World Bank would be giving to Bangladesh during the current fiscal to about $3 billion, once the funds from the existing projects are repurposed.

The World Bank country chief said the completion of the reforms would be "critically important" for Bangladesh and its young people, including the two million people who are joining the job market every year.

The Chief Adviser has told the World Bank country head that the bank must have flexibility to fund Bangladesh's reforms and help restart a new journey after 15 years of "extreme misgovernance."

"Out of these ashes, we have to build new structures. We need a big push, and we have to focus on the dreams of the students," he said.

"I will suggest, help us. Be a part of our team," said the Chief Adviser.

Professor Yunus asked the World Bank to lend its technical support to recover billions of dollars of stolen assets siphoned off from Bangladesh by corrupt individuals during Sheikh Hasina's 15-year-long dictatorship.

"You have the tech to bring back stolen assets," Professor Yunus said, adding Bangladesh would also need the bank's expertise to build "a zero-corruption Bangladesh".

The World Bank country chief has agreed to help Bangladesh bring back the stolen money. "We are happy to help you," Seck said.

He said the bank would also like to help Bangladesh with data transparency, data integrity, digitalisation of tax collection, and financial sector reforms.

Professor Yunus said Bangladesh can't afford to lose this once in a lifetime opportunity to fix its institutions and undertake major reforms.

"Once we lose it, it will never come back," he said.

Seck offered condolences for the martyrs of the July-August student-led uprising.

He said he was impressed by the graffiti and murals painted by young people on Dhaka's walls. "In 30 years of my career, I've never seen it anywhere," he said.

"We need to empower them," Seck said.

Turning the tide in finance

The US delegation, before wrapping up its visit, had also communicated it would be mobilising the multilateral lending agencies, i.e. the World Bank, to provide support in reforming banking and other sectors in Bangladesh. This became clearer during the course of the week, as the World Bank started courting Bangladesh with a number of senior officers coming up with different financing proposals.

Finance and Commerce Adviser Dr. Salehuddin Ahmed held a meeting with Martin Raiser, vice president for the South Asia Region of the World Bank, at his Secretariat office pn Thursday (Sep. 19).

Speaking to reporters after the meeting, the adviser said, "We discussed various projects with the World Bank's South Asia vice president and his team, including budget support, assistance in the energy sector, fertiliser imports, food, and post-flood aid."

Additionally, "We talked about support for the Rohingya refugees. The World Bank was very positive about all the proposals we presented, and they provided concrete responses. They assured us that they, along with other stakeholders, would coordinate, and there would be no hesitation in providing necessary funding or assistance."

"The reforms we have undertaken in the banking sector will receive support from the World Bank," said the adviser.

"We also discussed issues related to boosting investment in the private sector and addressing various challenges in business and trade. They have assured us of their assistance, and we will receive the necessary support," he added.

ADB steps up

The World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) will provide a combined $2.5 billion to support Bangladesh's reform efforts in the banking and financial sector.

The $2.5 billion loan will be provided in several packages, of which the World Bank will provide $1 billion and ADB will give $1.5 billion. This loan can be used as a support for the modernization and capacity building of Bangladesh Bank, including banking sector reforms.

Bangladesh Bank (BB) had a separate meeting with the two global lenders. The central bank spokesperson Husne Ara Shikha said that the loan assistance was assured in the meeting on Sunday.

She said that the World Bank has announced to provide loan assistance of $1.0 under three conditions for the reform of the banking and financial sector of Bangladesh. But now the World Bank will pay $750 million for policy assistance. This support will be available in December. Another $250 million loan assistance will be given as an investment loan and guarantee facility.

ADB on the other hand will provide $1.5 billion in three equal tranches of $500 million each.

Husne Ara also said that Bangladesh has to fulfil certain conditions to get the loan. These include the creation of asset management companies in the private sector, new definitions of defaulted loans in international standards, and the audit firm's report on the newly formed task force.

However, 50 percent of the conditions have already been met through reforms implemented by the bowlers, said central bank officials.

Ex-ambassador tries to assure India

US Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources Richard R. Verma, formerly America's ambassador in Delhi (2015-17), has said it is for the people of Bangladesh to decide when a new election will be held, and how long the interim government will stay.

"That is for the people of Bangladesh to decide how and when they are going to hold a new election and how long the transitional (interim) government will be in place," he said while responding to a question at an event at Hudson Institute in Washington D.C. on Monday.

The top US diplomat said it is a bit too early to tell in which direction things are headed and said the reason the US team visited Dhaka was to pledge their support for a "peaceful" democratic process and transition. "I think that is the most important thing right now."

Verma said their team just returned, which made additional commitments in humanitarian aid and support for the people on the ground at this very difficult period.

"I think the most important thing is to try to support democratic, peaceful, lawful transition," he said, adding that that is where everyone's interest remains.

Talking about day by day approach, the US diplomat said security is hopefully restored, law and order is restored with basic economic services to the people. He said their role is to be supportive to people to provide what kind of support they can provide on a democratic pathway.

Regarding concerns about attacks on minorities, the US diplomat said any attack on any civilian is concerning. "I think we have to take those quite seriously."

Verma delivered remarks at the Hudson Institute in Washington D.C. and discussed milestones achieved in the US-India relationship since 2000, and chart a pathway forward for strengthening bilateral ties.

After delivering remarks, Verma participated in an open conversation with Dr Aparna Pande, Research Fellow on India and South Asia at the Hudson Institute, which is when the issue of Bangladesh, and particularly the recent changes that have taken place, came up.