Constitutional upheavals are rare but in Georgia, they come repeatedly (1992, 2003, and as of this week, now 2024). We might even call them revolutions, not ideologically, but in the broad sense of mass mobilisation, a forced transfer of power, and the passing of sovereignty to a new group of rulers.

Over the past three decades, these types of revolutions have become endemic in the Georgian political system. Persistently, democratic breakthroughs in the country lead not to institutionalised democracy, but to corrupt and unaccountable governance.

Today, the Georgian government is led by an oligarchic organisation called Georgian Dream, which started as a "democratic breakthrough". It is not a functioning political party anymore. It is controlled by a select group of people around a single billionaire, Bidzina Ivanishvili, the richest man in Georgia, who serves as the organisation's honorary chairman. In reality, he is the unaccountable and unchecked ruler of the country.

Ivanishvili, a plautocrat (or a plutocrat and autocrat rolled into one) and his government are now on the brink of collapse. Just two weeks ago, on the 21 November, I told an audience at the ASEEES convention in Boston the complete opposite - that the Georgian Dream government had secured the neutrality of the army and the loyalty of the police, that the opposition was leaderless, and the people exhausted. I was wrong in this analysis.

What happened since that Boston convention in November is characteristic of revolutionary periods - time accelerated. The government, like many that face mass protest on the street challenging state power, has made forced errors. Government collapse is determined as much by blunders from above as it is by pressure from below. Georgia's state institutions are now thus in the process of disintegration.

Timeline: What's happened in Georgia?

Georgian Dream's original mistake took place earlier this year, in April 2024. The government reintroduced a law that had been withdrawn in 2023 after a public outcry. Called the Law on the Transparency of Foreign Influence, it was designed to silence Georgian civil society and begin the process of "de-Europeanisation."

But reintroducing this draconian law did the opposite as civil society was galvanised into action, and EU institutions such as the Venice commission, rallied around opposition claims that the law was anti-democratic and should be rescinded. Massive demonstrations began that spring. Youthful and joyful - Georgia was, as William Wordsworth described the French revolution in 1789, "a country in romance." But when the protests petered out (as Ivanishvili anticipated), the government looked secure. The police had proven their loyalty.

Then, corrupt parliamentary elections on October 26 rekindled mass rallies. Arguably Georgian Dream could have secured a small parliamentary majority without massively falsifying the elections. But it chose to rig the elections anyway, stupidly, greedily, and for all to see. Ivanishvili wanted a constitutional majority (three quarters of parliamentary seats), he said, to legally ban the opposition. A popular campaign against the forged election swamped Tbilisi for weeks after the fraud became increasingly apparent. The demonstrations and the government response were angrier this time. But by mid-November, the protests, leaderless and lacking a strategic goal, were diminishing.

Then came the fatal error. Prime-Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced on 28 November that the government was suspending negotiations for accession to the EU until 2028. This enraged a Georgian populace that for two centuries has believed it is Europe. This idea is deeply embedded in the historical imagination of every Georgian voter. Polls in 2024 tell us that 7 out of 10 Georgians want EU membership, which they anticipate will bring economic privilege, security from Russia, and a modern "civilised" path to greater prosperity.

There is a logic to the government's blunders. Georgian Dream is a clique of cabinet members, parliamentarians, and ministerial officials isolated from Georgian society and indebted to one man for power. Cabinet members and their staff are dependent on Ivanishvili. Criticism is not welcome and could lead to banishment from the inner circle. It seems no one among Ivanishvili's close circle was willing to tell him that suspending the EU dream was a dangerous idea. The decision reflected the isolation of the governing elite, and deference to a leader convinced that power, as always, was in his hands.

Until now, there has been a sense of immunity among Georgian Dream's leaders, the type of arrogance that characterises isolated oligarchies before they fall. No compromise, no negotiations. In late November, a viral video of Georgian Dream government members feasting (and singing the Georgian national anthem) contrasted with demonstrators and journalists being systematically beaten on the street by the riot police. Unlike rallies in the spring, there was no joy and no dancing in the streets.

The beginning of the end

The end is near when former supporters and elites begin to peel away from a beleaguered government. On 29 November, staff of Georgia's Ministry of Defense, the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Education publicly petitioned the government to reverse its anti-European policies. Ambassadors from Bulgaria, the Netherlands and Lithuania resigned. Georgia's US ambassador joined them on 30 November.

Over two hundred members of the Georgian National Bank have added their voice. "The suspension of accession negotiations," they declared, "opposes article 78 of the Georgian constitution and does not correspond with the country's historical aspiration to become a full member of the European family."

The protests have spread to Georgia's regions - to Batumi, Kutaisi, Zugdidi, Rustavi, even Chkhorotsqu, a region of 22,000 people in the mountains of Samegrelo. Under pressure from President Salome Zurabishvili the four political blocs that lead the opposition have united around a Coordinating Political Council which will ensure "transitional, stable power" until a new legitimate parliament is elected.

EU bodies such as PACE in their election reports expressed doubt about the veracity of the elections, and the US has suspended its strategic partnership with Georgia. There are now two competing centres of power in Georgia, each claiming to represent the sovereign people. One is backed by Russia, the other by the EU and US.

Events are cascading against the Georgian Dream government. On 30 November, a truck delivering water to armored water cannon vehicles emptied its tank on the street in defiance of orders. On 2 December, Tbilisi's teachers protested (a constituency that normally declines to raise its voice for fear of dismissal) outside the Ministry of Education.

Doctors have issued a manifesto, declaring "current rulers of the country do not uphold the law (and) trample on human rights." Business organisations have broken their silence. The International Chamber of Commerce in Georgia warned that the government's decision "will have a significant negative economic impact." The Georgian Trade Unions' Association (GTUC) has added its voice: in a statement, it declared that the goal of Euro-integration "is in Georgia's constitution and affirmed by the Georgian people's firm will."

Suddenly, the signs are dire for the Georgian Dream government. The first cracks in the security ministries appeared when a Senior Instructor at the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MIA) of Georgia, resigned. This is how state power begins to crumble. The choices are extremely narrow for Georgian Dream, forced by its own errors into a corner. Now it is either survival by brutal suppression (already an unlikely scenario), or flight.

From openDemoctacy