A month after the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine, the smell of rot lingers on the banks of the Dnipro river through Zaporizhzhia city.

The loss of the dam downstream led to a sudden four-metre drop in water levels, causing the mass death of fish, mussels and other aquatic life. The full scale of the ecological impacts is yet to be determined.

For many of Zaporizhzhia's residents, the destruction of the dam was once unthinkable - they thought the severity of the crisis would have been too great. Now, they are anxiously waiting to see if another crisis once deemed unimaginable will become reality, as the Ukrainian government warns of an apparently impending Russian attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP).

"The scariest thought is that if they can blow up the dam, then they can surely commit a new terrorist attack at the power plant," said Vladimir Molko, 46, a lifelong resident of Zaporizhzhia. "This is a big city, and if something were to happen, I don't think everyone would be evacuated in time."

The ZNPP, located in the city of Enerhodar on the eastern bank of the Dnipro river, roughly 50 kilometres south of Zaporizhzhia, has been occupied by Russian forces since 4 March 2022. In the past two weeks Ukrainian authorities have released a series of warnings over alleged Russian plans to attack the plant.

On 20 June, the head of Ukraine military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, accused Russia of mining the plant's cooling pond, which holds the water that cools the reactors. Days later, president Volodymyr Zelenskyi said Ukrainian intelligence had uncovered Russian plans to cause a radiation leak. This announcement was followed by large-scale training exercises with emergency services in Zaporizhzhia and Dnipro. On 30 June, Ukraine's military intelligence claimed Russia was evacuating its occupiers from the plant, with alleged orders to leave by 5 July.

Zelenskyi reiterated a warning on 4 July, stating that Russia had "placed objects resembling explosives on the roof of several power units of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant". But on 5 July, Budanov told The Times that the danger of a man-made disaster at the plant was diminishing, though he refused to say why.

The ZNPP is subject to partial oversight by the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which has repeatedly warned about its security. On 30 June the IAEA stated that no "visible indications of mines or other explosives" had been seen, but on 5 July they called for increased access to the plant to "confirm the absence of mines and explosives at the site." On 6 July, journalists from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty said they had detected newly placed objects on the roof of one of the power units, Reactor 4, in satellite images, though they could not say if these were explosives.

While speculation mounts, residents of Zaporizhzhia, the largest city in the oblast, are preparing for the worst.

The city was home to 750,000 people prior to the full-scale invasion. Its current population is unknown - with tens of thousands having fled the war and thousands more having arrived after being displaced from Russian-occupied territory - but most estimates hover around 500,000. In a worst case scenario, the local government believes it can evacuate 138,000 people.

"There is a comprehensive evacuation plan, especially for those areas that fall within 50 kilometres of the zone near the nuclear power plant. If this plan is implemented, 138,000 people will be evacuated," Taras Tyshchenko, the chief executive officer of Zaporizhzhia oblast centre for disease control and prevention, a Ministry of Health agency, told openDemocracy.

Tyshchenko continued: "People will learn what to do through an announcement system via direct communication. There will be information in Telegram channels, phone messages and loudspeakers."

The ZNPP is the largest nuclear plant in Europe. It has six reactors, two of which are free of nuclear fuel due to maintenance that was being carried out when Russia's full-scale invasion began, three that are in a state of cold shutdown, and one in a state of hot shutdown, meaning there is an ongoing reaction, according to Tyshchenko. There is also a storage facility housing spent nuclear fuel. Experts say an accident at the plant is highly unlikely due to its strategic design and that any incident at the ZNPP would be intentional.

"I feel the same sort of anxiety as I felt before the start of the full-scale war," said 33-year-old Denys Voshyk, a humanitarian volunteer from Zaporizhzhia.

Voshyk is no stranger to dangerous work, having spent the past year delivering supplies to and evacuating people from the frontlines, all while living in frequently bombarded Zaporizhzhia. But he plans to leave if necessary. "I have two little children and if something happens, we will have to leave because that is too dangerous for them," he says.

Like Voshyk, many of Zaporizhzhia's residents are hardened against the impacts of war. But the shock of the destruction of Kakhova dam is hard to overstate.

"In the beginning of this spring, I didn't think [the Russians] would consider [attacking the ZNPP], but since they destroyed the dam, I think they are capable of anything," said 45-year-old Serhii Malishev, the director of an ophthalmology clinic. He is a leading organiser in the city's networks of volunteers that have mobilised in response to the war, facilitating the delivery of donated medical supplies to nearby hospitals and clinics.

"I think they have no rules for this war," Malishev said of the Russian military. "I want to think this situation is under control, but I can't be 100% sure. The Russians are crazy, so we have to be prepared."

Malishev and the members of this team plan to stay whatever happens, and have already sourced protective suits and masks and distributed them among volunteers.

"Everything will depend on the type of explosion and the wind," he explained. "We are 50 kilometres from the plant, so I don't think we will have any radiation injuries, but it's possible. The wind will be our god in this situation."

Another person planning to remain is Anatoly Karpachov, 62, who was part of the emergency response team to the 1986 Chernobyl disaster and is head of the Chernobyl Veterans Association. "I have been living with thyroid cancer for 20 years," he says. "I wouldn't want this situation to happen again but if it does, of course we will help. Who else but us?"

Any explosion of radioactive material at the ZNPP is expected to contaminate a minimum radius of 10-20 kilometres around the plant, but this is dependent on what is destroyed and how. The Ukrainian government is hypothetically planning for the situation to be worse, Tyshchenko says.

"If the reactors are detonated with explosives, radioactive contamination will occur," he said. Speaking to openDemocracy, Tyshchenko also noted the 'possibility' that Russian nuclear engineers could bring the reactors out of cold shutdown - what he calls the 'worst-case scenario'. On 6 July, Ukraine's state nuclear energy company, Energoatom, claimed that occupying personnel at ZNPP were preparing to move Reactor 4 into 'hot shutdown'.

He added: "We do not trust the Russians and believe that they are interested in the biggest disaster."

The Zaporizhzhia oblast centre for disease control and prevention is constantly monitoring the air for signs of radiation and will be able to detect any blown in the direction of the city.

"We monitor the air everyday," explains Olha Havrikova, the lab's general director. "If there were radioactive precipitation at the moment, we would see it."

At the moment Ukraine's allies have yet to corroborate the government's assertions regarding an imminent attack. Meanwhile, the Russian government has denied all allegations. On 5 July, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov claimed there was "a great risk of sabotage by the Kyiv regime" at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

Concerns remain regarding how effective any response by the Ukrainian government can be. People fleeing a contaminated area by car will carry radiation with them on the vehicle, and while emergency services demonstrated their methods of cleaning vehicles during the recent training, it is unclear if this can be done on the necessary scale.

"There are three main roads out of Zaporizhzhia," Malishev explained. "The government would need to control the radiation that is on each vehicle evacuating and I am not convinced they have enough equipment to do this at the moment."

"It's time for a revolution in understanding what we can do, and what we will have to do, because good intentions will not be enough," he said. "I don't want to lose my home, my friends, and my community."

From openDemocracy