When US President-elect Donald Trump vows to deport millions of illegal immigrants, India might not be the first source country that comes to mind. But the uncomfortable reality, to which Indians are now waking up, is that our compatriots represent a significant share of those who have fled to the United States in search of a better life.

In January 2022, an Indian family of four seeking to cross illegally into the US, froze to death in Canada, less than 40 feet from the border. It might seem strange that a family from one of India's more prosperous states, Gujarat, with two educated parents and a home in a middle-class town would risk life and limb on such a dangerous, even foolhardy, journey. But their story is not uncommon. In fact, seven other people from Gujarat had embarked on the illegal crossing with them. Gujarat is Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's home state, and he was Chief Minister there for nearly 13 years. His election to lead the national government was based significantly on the apparent success of his economic stewardship there. But people from the state have reached the point that they are willing to risk everything to go elsewhere. This reality seems to belie the prevailing narrative of prosperity. It is not just Gujarat. A growing number of people from Punjab - India's "breadbasket" - are also seeking a better life outside India. Though Punjab is a fertile agrarian state, unemployment is above the national average, and drug use is becoming increasingly rampant. Even as the state's farms produce a large share of India's food, they are unable to provide livelihoods for all the young people who depend on them.

With few opportunities at home, many young Punjabis have been driven toward the "donkey route" - a slang term for the long, tortuous journey illegal Indian migrants take to countries like Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the US. The expression arose from the mangling of the title of the Bollywood film Dunki, which is about illegal immigration, though "mule route" is also used. Would-be Indian immigrants pay agents as much as $100,000 to smuggle them into the US through what they are told are loosely guarded border points. Some start their journey by traveling legally to Central or South American countries; others are told that Canada is a safer option, as America's northern border is longer and less tightly policed than its border with Mexico. But, as we have seen, slipping through snow and ice in the dark carries its own risks, especially for those who lack experience with such cold temperatures.

Since October 2020, US Customs and Border Protection officials have detained nearly 170,000 Indian migrants attempting to cross the border illegally from either Canada or Mexico. They were mostly young men, but the demographics at the US border have lately been changing, with families now accounting for 16-18% of detentions. It is not just desperate young men looking for a break; middle-class families also see no future in today's India. Of course, some Indian migrants do manage to complete the dangerous journey: the Pew Research Center estimates that, as of 2022, there were 725,000 undocumented Indian immigrants in the US - the third-largest group, outnumbered only by nationals of Mexico and El Salvador. But their future in the US is far from guaranteed. As US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Assistant Secretary for Border and Immigration Policy Royce Bernstein Murray recently noted, there has been a "steady increase in removals" of Indian nationals from the US over the past few years, with 1,100 deported just in the last fiscal year (which concluded at the end of September). This trend is not slowing. A DHS press release from October described a "large-frame charter removal flight" of Indian nationals, who "did not establish a legal basis to remain" in the US, to India. This was not the first such deportation flight, and all signs indicate that more are in process. And Trump has not even been inaugurated yet. The Indian government, which has cooperated in the repatriations, has attempted to put a positive spin on them. "The idea," declared External Affairs Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal, "is to create more avenues for legal migration." What India's leaders should be doing, however, is asking themselves why so many of their fellow citizens want to leave in the first place. Most Indian migrants are unashamedly seeking better economic opportunities. They believe that if they can reach a major US city, they will be able to disappear into the crowd and find decent work. But some migrants cite other reasons for leaving. Some Sikhs from Punjab, for example, have applied for asylum, claiming that they fear persecution by Indian authorities' crackdown on the Khalistan separatist movement. Indian officials typically respond to such allegations with indignation, claiming that accusers are inventing stories to improve their chances of staying. (US asylum laws do offer some leeway for asylum seekers to remain in the country while their applications are processed. Marrying a US citizen in the meantime opens up another route to legal residency.) They would be better off taking people's motivations seriously. India must become a land of hope again. The sad truth is that for all the Modi government's hype, India's much-vaunted economic success story is one of jobless growth, record-high youth unemployment, and, for most Indians, slipping standards of living. An India with a revitalized economy, a level playing field, and adequate job opportunities for the young, as well as a government that defends the rights and interests of all, is an India that few people would want to leave.

From Project Syndicate