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The move to start the process of joining the China-led Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world's largest trade pact, is both timely and commendable - for more reasons than might be immediately apparent. The Commerce Ministry this week sent a letter of consent to the Foreign Ministry, clearing the path for Bangladesh to negotiate its entry into what was branded as the first Asia-centric free trade agreement at the time of its signing in 2020.
RCEP marries the ten robust economies of the Association of South East Asian Nations, or Asean, with the two continental behemoths, China and Japan, as well as South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. One notable absentee is India, which was very much involved in the initial negotiations but later decided to opt out, a year before the signing took place at the 2020 Asean Summit in Vietnam. An invitation remains open to it to accede to RCEP at any time.
Now, given Bangladesh's abysmal record when it comes to negotiating to be part of free trade agreements, it might be slightly premature to expect Bangladesh's entry into the pact as its 16th member right away. The 15 member countries at present account for about 30% of the world's population (2.2 billion people) and 30% of global GDP ($29.7 trillion), making it the largest trade bloc in history.
The Commerce Ministry completed its assessment in August 2023, at which time it produced a document focused strictly on the commercial or economic aspects. Primarily, it was assessed that Bangladesh's annual exports would increase by $3.26 billion, and FDI by 3.36 percent. The apparel industry will account for a significant portion of the exports while the demand for skilled and unskilled workers in the garment sector will rise by 18 percent, according to the commerce ministry document. Overall, the country's GDP could witness a 0.26 percent boost if it joins the RCEP, the document said.
Coming to the challenges, the services, investment and e-commerce sectors would need to become more competitive. Since Bangladesh is located in South Asia and is also a member of the Asean Regional Forum, the country will need to negotiate separately with member countries. However, it will also enjoy the benefit of geographical proximity. The RCEP includes a mix of high-, middle-, and low-income countries. It is expected to eliminate about 90% of the tariffs on imports between its signatories within 20 years of coming into force, and establish common rules for e-commerce, trade, and intellectual property.
Earlier the Chief Adviser's office approved the move. This is significant, because it demonstrates the interim government has not closed the door on non-Western partners, as some had started complaining. In fact, the CA has demonstrated a great deal of interest in working with the countries of south-east Asia in particular, and has talked of the importance of Asean to Bangladesh on more than one occasion - not least during Malaysian leader Anwar Ibrahim's visit here.
Notably, the move by Dhaka has been swiftly welcomed in Global Times, the mouthpiece of the Communist Party of China - which encouraged Bangladesh to rise above reservations and recognise that the Asia-Pacific region, from which the RCEP draws its entire membership, is poised to become the most dynamic region of the global economy, making it logical to connect with these economies. On that, there can hardly be any disagreement.
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